Long Range Tracking: ‘Bohemian Rhapsody,’ ‘Nobody’s Fool,’ & ‘The Nutcracker and the Four Realms’

Box Office Pro September 07, 2018

Boxoffice’s Long Range Tracking report takes a first official look at the 2018 holiday season this week with early projections for several key releases scheduled for November 2.

Bohemian Rhapsody Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 40 million

Buzz around Rami Malek’s ( Mr. Robot ) anticipated performance as Queen front-man Freddie Mercury is driving strong interest and online conversation thus far, indicating potential for the film to follow in the footsteps of  Walk the Line  and  Ray  as an award-contending music bio released in November. The film’s director change midway through production may cause some initial concern, and while we expect some front-loading by Queen’s multiple generations of fans, early reactions from industry screenings of the film’s first half-hour have been very encouraging.

Tyler Perry’s Nobody’s Fool Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 20 million

Rising star Tiffany Haddish ( Girls Trip ) could be a notable driving factor for this comedy, not to mention writer/director’s Tyler Perry’s own consistent audience. We’re somewhat conservative for now given the recent availability of the film’s first trailer, but early trends suggest it could be a fair counter-programmer.

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 30 million

Forecasting models for Disney’s next live action adaptation are volatile for now, due in part to what will be a stronger slate of kid- and family-driven releases later in November and December. Nutcracker ‘s early trailers have generated a fair amount of positive sentiment online, staying power could be solid with the holiday season ahead, and the film’s notable ensemble cast may help appeal to parents. Still, we’re cautious given the mixed performances of Disney’s non-tentpole features in recent years. Initial trend and performance comps include the likes of  A Wrinkle In Time ,  The BFG, and  Alice Through the Looking Glass.

8-Week Tracking