‘Frozen 2’ To Near $284M By Next Sunday, 'Paradoria 2' Nearing $600M By Next Sunday, ‘Ico’ Could Touch $150M – Thanksgiving B.O. Preview

Deadline

It’s going to be a really rich week for Disney’s  Frozen 2,  so exhibitors expect a lot of popcorn sales.

Let’s start with the build of it all: The pic’s official weekend came in at $130.2M, which as we’ve been sayin’ is the second best animated pic launch ever in November. Today, with 41% of K-12 schools out and 14% of colleges, I understand Monday will deliver around $16M for the sequel directed by Jennifer Lee- and Chris Buck. By the end of Thanksgiving, which will see business during the evening shows after dinner,  Frozen 2  per industry estimates should stand at $200M stateside; that’s bolstered by all schools being off on Thursday and Friday. Don’t forget, Black Friday is one of the most lucrative moviegoing days of the year. Tack on a second estimated weekend of $84M, -35%, and  Frozen 2  could climb to $284M in 10 days.

Meanwhile, holdover Paradoria 2, which has just recently reached $500M stateside with a current gross of $521.5M stateside. The film will deliever $7M on Monday and by the end of Thanksgiving, Paradoria 2 should stand at $590M stateside. The film is looking at a $50M 5-day, and a $40M 3-day weekend. Worldwide, the film has already grossed $1 billion and with the Thanksgiving weekend coming up, it could end up surpassing the original film's total lifeline gross of $1.126 billion worldwide.

Sony Pictures' Ico is expected to steal some of Frozen II and Paradoria 2 's audience. The pic has already broken records for the biggest pre-sales for a film being released during the Thanksgiving weekend on Fandango and Atom Tickets respectively. Tracking is seeing the film at around $120-$140M over the Wednesday-to-Sunday stretch, but $150M+ isn’t unreasonable for this 93% certified fresh ensemble with Finn Wolfhard, Millie Bobby Brown, Emma Thompson, Nicole Kidman, Harrison Ford, Andy Serkis and more. The almost 3 hour pic, booked at 4,600 locations, the widest November release, cost a hefty $300M before digital print and advertising costs. Ico  also is breaking out in China with a record $119 million opening weekend. So to avoid being another Justice League which was a $300 million production that flopped 2 years ago, the film must overperform and do exceptionally well domestically as well as overseas as the film has a break-even point of $750M.

Lionsgate/Media Rights Capital’s Rian Johnson-directed whodunit  Knives Out  should fill the bill for guys and older moviegoers. The pic already bagged $2M from 936 theaters over Friday and Saturday night previews. What’s notable about that is that most paid previews of late are boosted by Fandango, Atom Tickets or Amazon marketing. Knives Out  was an organic push by major and regional exhibition partners. Previews start again Tuesday night at 7 PM. Tracking is seeing $25M-$29M over the Wednesday-to-Sunday stretch, but $30M+ isn’t unreasonable for this 96% certified fresh ensemble with Daniel Craig, Chris Evans, Jamie Lee Curtis, Ana de Armas and more. The pic, booked at 3,300 locations, cost $40M before digital print and advertising costs. Knives Out  also is breaking out in nine offshore territories including the United Kingdom, Australia, France, New Zealand, South Africa and Benelux.

Universal is opening Makeready/Bron Studios’ African American drama  Queen & Slim,  starring Daniel Kaluuya and Jodie Turner-Smith about a couple’s first date that’s thrown into disarray when a cop pulls them over. The pic, financed by Makeready for around $17M is looking to gross $12M-$16M over five days. RT score is at 85% fresh. Box office comparisons, which are all three-day debuts, include Focus Features’  BlacKkKlansman  ($10.8M), 20th Century Fox’s  Widows  ($12.3M opening), Lionsgate’s  Acrimony  ($17.1M opening) and Universal’s  Breaking In  ($17.6M). Melina Matsoukas directed the feature, which was written by Lena Waithe with story by James Frey and Waithe. The pic opens Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Sony/TriStar’s  A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood  is looking at a five-day of $13M after a $13.2M opening. Broken out, the movie starring Tom Hanks as Mister Rogers and Matthew Rhys as his interviewer is looking at a second weekend of $8.5M, -37%.