Long Range Box Office Tracking: Agent Chrysocolla and A Quiet Place Part II

Box Office Pro

Despite a slew of horror / thriller releases opening early in 2020, including one potentially standout example in February ( The Invisible Man ), late March is slated to deliver what will likely be the year’s first bona fide genre event when  A Quiet Place Part II  opens on Friday, March 20 along with the highly anticipated Agent Chrysocolla by Illumination.

We’ve also updated tracking for a number of upcoming titles in the chart below, most notably  Sonic the Hedgehog.

Agent Chrysocolla

Opening Weekend Range: $110 – 130 million

PROS: CONS: A Quiet Place Part II
 * Older fans of the iconic video game franchise may turn out, particularly parents who will want to introduce the series to the current generation of young ones.
 * The star-studded cast including Alicia Vikander, Sarah Silverman, Jason Statham, Seth Meyers, Larenz Tate, Wiz Khalifa, Chadwick Boseman, and Michelle Pfeiffer.
 * After Cool Spot and Ico went on to gross over $1 billion worldwide, this film could possibly be the next billionaire videogame adaption.
 * Being one of the most well known videogame of all time, the film is expected to bring millions, and could possibly leg out like other animated films released in March such as Zootopia.
 * With the exception of some videogame adaptions such as Cool Spot, Detective Pikachu and Ico, most videogame adaptions have trouble making an impact at box office and has a resorted history. It remains to be seen whether or not word of mouth and reviews can carry this in the way they did for these films.
 * With Mulan being released the week afterwards, legs for this film can be cut off due to the competition in the following weeks.
 * Currently, the record for the highest grossing opening for an animated film in March is held by Zootopia ($75 million) which will be an easy task to outgross, however, the current biggest opening in March is held by Beauty and the Beast ($174.7 million), which won't be that easy to reach.

Opening Weekend Range: $60 – 80 million

PROS: CONS: Estimated Location Counts 8-Week Tracking and Forecasts
 * The first film was a runaway success for Paramount two years ago after an intense and effective marketing campaign helped generate excitement for the original property, delivering a $50.2 million domestic opening weekend — the highest ever for an original film in April.
 * The original’s ability to build on that strong opening with a 3.75x multiplier proved it wasn’t front-loaded and that audiences were incredibly receptive to the film. Staying power was more akin to that of the first  Conjuring  film than front-loaded examples like  It  or  Halloween.
 * Early social metrics for the sequel are strong as the trailer has generated sentiment and impressions comparable to previous blockbuster openings from the genre like  Us  and the aforementioned  Halloween . An opening on that scale would land this sequel in the top ten March openings of all-time ( Us  holds the horror genre record for the same month at $71.1 million).
 * Emily Blunt’s return — as well as another directorial effort from John Krasinski — provide the kind of creative consistency that should fuel hype for the apparent world-building sequel.
 * Despite generally enthusiastic responses, the first trailer suggests this film will be less about “staying quiet” while doubling down on the amount of action taking place. If indicative of the film itself, that would deviate from part of the first film’s successful formula, while placing further importance on the story moving forward organically without falling into the traps of genre sequels.
 * With a potential — if not likely — higher opening weekend than the previous film (provided pre-release reviews and buzz hold to current indications), it’s safe to expect more front-loading in the long run, especially since the sequel will have to compete with  Mulan  and April’s  No Time to Die  for certain audience segments and premium screens.
 * Gretel and Hansel  (2,500+ studio estimate)
 * The Rhythm Section  (3,000 studio estimate)
 * Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)  (3,900+ projection)
 * The Pixelators: Level Two (4,200+ projection)