Long Range Tracking: 'Addie' and ‘Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral’

This week’s report takes an early look at the first two wide releases currently scheduled for March: Addie and A Madea Family Funeral. While Lionsgate still has  Chaos Walking  slated for the March 1 weekend as well, we expect a release delay to be announced soon as the film remains in production.

Addie 

Opening Weekend Range: $65 – 80 million

PROS:
 * The huge popularity of Gingo as a whole brand itself and it's loyal fans can bring in a huge box office draw, after Cool Spot 's current $494 million domestic total.


 * Reactions to the trailers were mostly positive with most considering it an improvement over it's precessedor.
 * Early Trailer Impact metrics are encouragingly ahead of Lix at the same point before release.

CONS: Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral Opening Weekend Range: $23 – 30 million
 * The fact that the film is a spin-off to the critically panned Emoji Movie could hurt box office.
 * Captain Marvel opening directly a week after along with Paradoria 2: Enchanted Realm opening 3 weeks later can hurt the film's legs.
 * Front-loading can be possible depending on the fans of Gingo.

PROS: CONS: 8-Week Tracking Tracking and forecasts are subject to change each week as marketing, reviews, and other factors are taken into consideration.
 * Tyler Perry’s loyal fan base is expected to return for what the actor/filmmaker has promised will be the final Madea movie, a series which has earned an impressive $496.5 million domestically across eight films dating back to 2005.
 * Positioned nearly one month after  What Men Want, the film has enough breathing room to build significant interest as the next major comedy to be driven by a similar audience.
 * Early Trailer Impact metrics are encouragingly ahead of  Night School  at the same point before release.
 * Front-loading is likely given the built-in fan audience, while opening two weeks before Jordan Peele’s  Us  could hinder staying power on some level.